How the Machine WorksIntermediate📖 8 min read

Inflation vs. Deflation

Both are dangerous — but in different ways and at different speeds.

Inflation
Prices rise; real cash loses power
Deflation
Prices fall; real debt burden rises
Policy bias
Central banks fight deflation aggressively
Investor lens
Watch real rates and credit stress

Inflation erodes purchasing power. Deflation can freeze spending and increase the real burden of debt. Investors should not treat this as a binary bet; instead, learn the mechanisms and what tends to benefit or break under each regime.

Table of Contents

Definitions

Inflation
A sustained rise in the general price level. Your money buys less over time.
Deflation
A sustained fall in the general price level, often associated with weak demand and debt stress.

Two Key Mechanisms

Debt Deflation (Intuition)
If prices and incomes fall, the real value of fixed debts rises, increasing defaults and tightening credit.
Misread: "Lower prices are always good"
Misconception
Deflation benefits consumers, so it should be positive.
Better Frame
In severe deflation, people delay spending, profits fall, layoffs rise, and credit systems weaken.

Investor dashboard

  • Inflation trend vs. expectations
  • Real rates and policy stance
  • Credit spreads and default risk
  • Wage growth and demand momentum

Practice: Identify the Regime Risk

Checkpoint
Which environment makes fixed nominal debt hardest to service?

Key Takeaways

1

Inflation erodes purchasing power; deflation can trigger debt stress and spending freezes.

2

Policy often fights deflation aggressively; markets react to the regime shift, not the label.

3

Track real rates, credit stress, and expectations to understand market impact.

Related Terms

Apply This Knowledge

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